Initial and transitional rainfall probabilities were determined using the Markov Chain (Robertson, 1976; Oldeman, 1982). These were then used to estimate the most probable sequences of wet and dry days for any three-day period in a decade.
Initial Probabilities
W - probability of a day being wet (5 mm rainfall or more)
D - probability of a day being dry (less than 5 mm rainfall)
Transitional Probabilities
DD - probability of a dry day given that the previous day was dry
DW - probability of a dry day given that the previous day was wet
WD - probability of a wet day given that the previous day was dry
WW - probability of a wet day given that the previous day was wet
DDD - probability that three consecutive days are dry
WWW - probability that three consecutive days are wet
WWD - probability that two consecutive days are wet and the third day is dry
WDW - probability that within three days the second day is dry